Business idea is hypothesis: how to find out if someone really needs it

An idea can seem brilliant in the mind of the person who created it and still not solve an important problem. The cheapest way to find out is not to ask “would you buy it?” It's observing what people already do when the problem appears.

Write the hypothesis in one sentence

Complete: “When [situation], [type of person] attempts [task], but encounters [obstacle].” If the phrase doesn't describe a concrete situation, perhaps you're still talking about a solution, not a need.

Then write down three assumptions: who experiences the problem, how often it happens and what the person does today to get around it. Mark which assumption, if wrong, would bring down the entire business. Test this one first.

Look for recent facts, not approval

Talk to people who have recently been through the situation. Ask them to tell you about the last time, what they did, how long it took, who participated, and what they tried before. Don't present your solution at the beginning: it changes the conversation and invites the person to please you.

Record the exact words, steps observed, and alternatives used. “I liked the idea” is an opinion. A repeated search, a spreadsheet created to overcome the problem, or an abandoned attempt are more useful behavioral clues.

Define what would make you change your mind

Before collecting responses, write down what evidence would support the hypothesis and what result would make you reformulate it. This reduces the temptation to reinterpret any response as confirmation.

The goal is not to prove that your idea is right. It’s about discovering early what needs to change: the audience, the situation, the problem or the solution. A hypothesis discarded after a conversation costs less than months of construction in the dark.

Frequently asked questions

How many people do I need to interview?

There is no universal number. Start with a small, specific group. Continue as each conversation reveals new patterns; stop to review when answers start to repeat themselves.

Can I show a prototype?

You can, after understanding the current experience. First investigate the problem; then observe how the person tries to use the prototype and where they hesitate.

What if no one reports the problem?

Make sure you've talked to people who are experiencing the situation and ask about recent episodes. If the absence persists, treat this as evidence to change the hypothesis.

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